US Mid Terms – errors, preemptive acts & acceleration
Flurry of global activity converges over US Mid Terms
Date: 1 Nov 2026 (truncated public release on 8 Nov 2026)
Dear reader
You may have wondered why we are so quiet lately. You can be glad we are not one of those analysts or research boutiques with the compulsive need to add their personal comment to every event out there. As if it would add value. There are times to report more often, but the last 6 weeks was NOT that time. It was time to quietly observe and analyse what so many actors were doing – What lies ahead demands it. We are doing this for more than ten years and we have seen this pattern before.
First things first: In the 37 years that I am closely following US election cycles, I have never seen anything like this. Never before have we seen such level of activity by nation states, foreign groups, supranational organisations and domestic institutions .. trying to influence the outcome of a US Mid Terms Election. Most of it is taking place behind the scenes and behind the curtains though.
After telling their citizens for months that they ought to prepare themselves mentally and physically for the possibility of conflict and war, many nations increased their warnings in recent days .. giving their citizens explicit details of what to prepare for. Whether for 3 days or 3 weeks of cyber disruptions, chaos or war, it all seems to converges over the US Mid Terms.
With so much talk of wars, crisis and even pandemics, people cannot simply assume that nobody will do anything. It is likely that a major actor or group of actors will use the heightened tensions about this Mid Terms to preempt its competitors/enemies with a systemic event. We have already seen pre-emptive actions by groups of countries being pre-empted by Washington. And it is visible again: there are more alliances than powers involved. Thus, no one trusts his allies fully.
On the one hand the level of intromission and meddling efforts into the Mid Terms is unprecedented and it adds to a general sense of confusion & fear. On there other hand, whatever unfolds in the aftermath of the Mid Terms may feed the conviction of those who say a number of governments need crises to use the state of emergency to seize yet more control over their citizens. Nowhere in the world is this so prevalent as across the Western world.
One thing seems to be certain – the overlap of trends will accelerate after the Mid Terms.
We are hearing for over one decade now “the world is so uncertain, there is no visibility!”. We don’t agree with this uncertainty talk. I say the path forward was pretty certain and it remains certain. When you think everything is uncertain, you get into fear and can’t do nothing except rely on the government. There is more certainty than uncertainty is this current world. When you see what is certainly coming, you can plan and act on it. You are in control of your life.
Having been a professional investor helps
You cannot manage other people’s wealth and big pensions by following your personal political or ideological views. Not for long. If you do, you’ll be out of work and reputation after just one economic cycle. As you survive your first 10 years as an investment manager you become more disciplined & studious, but also more self-critical & open minded (what if consensus is wrong? Are there any truly independent sources?), thus eager to search for facts that contradict your strategy. You are critical, because your income and most of all your reputation hangs in the balance. And that is all you’ve got as a professional.
Professional investors are amongst the first to notice when tension builds up in the system and volatility is about to erupt. They know that when a big self off hits, everything can sell off – even gold. Often people have to sell their best positions first to raise liquidity. You can’t sell the bad stuff so easily – unless you are first.
I will not elaborate on investments this time, but you should know by now – that due to its enormous strategic importance – the price of gold and silver is rarely reflecting true demand & supply.
I am not telling anyone to buy gold or silver – This is simply pure analysis:
In this troubled indebted economy we have entered, the market price of gold or silver cannot reflect the tremendous value it will probably pose & represent. When a systemic crisis shall strike and may need to make use of them, the eyes of the counterpart may shine more than for USD 5’000 price ticket. I wouldn’t be surprised a farmer will give your family potatoes only against some silver. Then you may know how futile it was to worry about price fluctuations.
Every two years the renown CFA Society invites me to share my analysis and outlook for the next US election. This time, the tension in the air is at a level I have never seen before. A highly accredited investor told me last week: “Thank you for doing this. I don’t know how you can connect all these dots, let alone dealing with the tension between the different camps!”. I sense it and my peers sense it too. This is not a normal market.
She didn’t say it, but markets may have been weaponised. In a time of widespread warfare that is not a surprise to us.
It is all in the timing – even miracles and coincidences in financial markets ..
Markets veterans have been talking about the market phenomenons of recent weeks. I would be very cautious and would avoid saying I know exactly what is happening. What follows is a possible explanation. This is a working hypothesis that needs testing as more data becomes available.
The AI complex of listed stocks has seen one of the biggest “rallies” in economic history, and yes it has been overbought for a long time.
But for seasoned veterans .. it “seems” that a group of big investors might have thought it a smart idea to trigger a self-off in the AI complex a few days before the Mid Terms. If one is at it, how about selling short those assets most held by Conservative voters? Prepper’s Gold comes next to mind. Then comes Cryptocurrencies since Republican voters are seen as tending to own more crypto than Democrats. A few days ago the largest crypto platform suffered its biggest “hack” ever. Billions worth of crypto currency was stolen. Who embraced and pushed Crypto? Yes, you got it. What we have seen in recent days will destroy or badly hurt the performance of most 401K’s and portfolios nationwide, but it will likely hurt conservative candidates more at the margin. Unhappy voters tend to punish the ruling party.
Millions across America will watch their investment portfolios on Monday 2 November. It won’t be a good day, In the 24 hours ahead of voting some Americans will be worried, some shocked, still others will be angry at the value destruction. Who bragged the most about the booming economy and the stock market boom, while looking somewhat detached from reality even in the eyes of some MAGA voters? That’s right. No one will be able to prove intent or concerted action. I can only say that if some big investors in California came out with this idea, it was brilliant. You have to compliment geniuses.
On the back of several errors
It will be wrong to blame a disappointing Mid Terms for Republicans, because of the market rout. What we have seen in financial markets is simply adding to a host of errors and problems that the President got himself into.
A number of MAGA followers were already quite disappointed by
- the renewed wars (which also added to energy costs)
- the Epstein files
- the cost of living crisis
In my humble opinion, the consensus view on the war on Iran is flawed. Our analysis showed from the beginning that this war is not so much about Iran, but to contain China, and by extension also Europe. In that sense Washington’s (real) strategy is paying off and is bearing fruit this fall-winter. Europe is being forced to either yield to accept a peace deal in Ukraine or go to war outright against Russia – to which it is not yet ready. I ascertain that the Republicans in the White House are trying to bring the war between Ukraine and Russia to a standstill before the Campaign for the next US General Elections start. This war may pause, but Europe and Russia will face off eventually.
On the cost of living, the President should have never bragged about how great the economy is doing, making light of the elevated cost of living. He did come across as detached from the plight of normal Americans. What he was not been told by his advisers is this “Mr President the numbers look great, but they have detached from the reality of millions of Americans. There is lots of inflation outside of the CPI !”
When he said that, he saw that the US economy had grown by 43% in just five years. But that was driven by massive fiscal-monetary inflation. The standard of living for 80% of Americans was declining over those 5 years.
President Donald J. Trump – Regarding the Mid Terms he said “I am not running”
So much is happening these days and voters are so disaffected, that we can’t rule out a last minute event could tip the balance at the ballot box. Nevertheless it is likely that the Republicans could lose the House and possibly the Senate as well. The achievements of President Trump – like on the Southern border or the superb way how the USA rallied the support of almost all Spanish speaking nations in South America are finding only limited echo outside core Republican circles.
Groupthink and closed ranks behaviour increasingly dominate
I can say with a certain confidence that since WW2 the Western world has never needed the free exchange of ideas and civilised open debate like it needs it now.
But this can’t be achieved, since not even the press is interested in balanced views. Sadly, extreme or one-sided views get most of the “air time”. Where in the past .. analysts, experts, economists and journalists were able to set aside their personal views to weigh in with a purely professional perspective, those same experts today use their professions to advance their personal views. Activism, in itself a good thing, has seized every sphere of life in the Western world. That is not a good thing, and – along the dramatic loss of morality – this lays the foundation for the demise of the West. You just need to pay attention to the lack of coherence and the behaviour of government officials, and how money flows these days unchecked – it is done without any restraint.
You can’t build a nation when even your most studied experts selectively pick every positive fact that supports their personal view to share it publicly .. and again equally selectively pick negative facts about the opposite view to air it with the same passion. Most people are either for or against something. Balanced views and the capacity to handle ambiguity is almost non-existent, let alone the ability to handle criticism.
When experts and political leaders behave like single-minded student activists, a civilisation enters the accelerated implosion phase.
The non-Western world is stunned
Europe returns to its war cycle; 1500 wars and counting
Northern hemisphere: ideally you have a plan or a call
Little room for blaming it all on our governments
A personal word
Those of you that have made preparations over the past ten years will probably be glad they did. Whether you did secure residence at a safe haven in the Southern hemisphere or you shifted some of your assets to South America/Far East or have several types of gold/silver positions outside the G20 .. among other measures, perilous times reward those that think ahead.
Having said all that, I hope we will not put all our hope in our back-up plans, gold or silver. There is more to life than material possessions. Having peace with God and our loved ones, being law-abiding citizens while living a life of integrity and service to others is as important as physical preparations.
For new readers
We have committed to objective analysis of geopolitical and economic developments – doing so with respect and a balanced approach. We seek to add value. Especially, because many commentators, journalists and analysts these days are passing judgement. Some are keen to shape public opinion rather than reporting or analysing facts. We appreciate activists – the world needs them, but we also need analysts that strive to separate their personal opinion from their professional work.
Furthermore we have committed to focus on that which consensus is underestimating and we release a report only when our analysis deviates from consensus significantly or we change our outlook significantly. A reminder: we are not a periodical. When we release a report depends solely on how our analysis differs from consensus and if we have changed our assessment. We are independent and we think independently. We don’t let AI write any of our reports.
Geopolitical Research Team – 1 Nov 2026 (truncated public release on 8 Nov 2026)
info@geopoliticalresearch.com
A personal note from our founder, Christian Takushi:
The great advantage of being an analysis-driven economist, rather than an activist for the left or the right, is that balanced analysis-driven research produces much more accurate predictions and we can pursue relentless analysis in search for the truth. Not only that, once we have a stable working hypothesis (or explanation) we keep revisiting it. I embrace the duty and freedom to change my assessment should new evidence arise. The primacy of National Security sets boundaries though, security concerns we should all respect. While this may no longer be today’s predominant reality, it used to be a standard in science and professional analysis. One that implied that one should separate personal views from empirical analysis.
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