War between Europe and Russia: One of the most underestimated risks?
European bonds are mis-priced and at risk
Date: 26 Aug 2026 (truncated public release on 7 Sep 2026 – an excerpt of a recent newsletter)
Dear reader
Last night at 23:00 hrs Zurich time we interrupted the review of a report that was in the pipeline to start writing this report in light of a security deterioration over Europe.
The report under review will be released as soon as the criteria is met.
We have warned for years that European Nations should not dismantle their Armed Forces, because weakness would attract aggression and ultimately wars. Thus, we don’t speak of the possibility of wars lightly, but rather with a profound sense of responsibility. At a time when so many people and activists have jumped on the “geopolitics train” to spread fears or to advance their personal views, we hope that our purely analytical, balanced & independent assessment can be a valuable second opinion.
As usual we focus our analysis on those factors that consensus is underestimating, but that could affect financial markets and nations significantly.
US and Russia exchange words in Moscow
Last night the CIA Director left Moscow after an exchange with Russian counterparts. The atmosphere was said to have been charged – warnings seem to have been exchanged. The unannounced meeting took place after recent escalations and Russian threats that it would treat any de facto blockade of Kaliningrad by European powers as an act of war.
Let’s focus on that which consensus is underestimating and could be relevant. Repeating what we all know and read in our press does not add value.
The European and US views are known to all of us. From a purely analytical perspective it might be useful to recall the Russian perspective. It is the delta between the two views that will determine if we go to war or not. Moscow is convinced the West is forcing it into a war. We have ascertained that Moscow is busy dealing with Ukraine, but it plans to avenge itself on those they feel led to major war losses – at a time of its own choosing. The problem is European powers may have kind of set a timeline, inadvertently.
Both sides have taken measures in recent months that were seen as an escalation by the other side. Growing Russian aggressive activity within NATO’s sphere (air, sea and under sea incursions by Russian assets, drones etc.) and the deep strikes within Russia, that Moscow says can only be executed with UK or US support. A few days ago London handed over to Kiev technical details of its feared Storm Shadow weapon. Many are blaming the Storm Shadow for the escalation, we disagree. The fact that Kiev gave London extensive details of Russian battle tactics, in exchange, made new plans for conventional war operations even more futile for Moscow. This might have triggered a tipping point and the escalation. No one factor tips a complex security balance though.
Don’t forget these escalations are happening just as Germany, France and Britain face a rising opposition from conservative camps (political right). France and Germany have been able to keep the conservative opposition from reaching power by a so-called “Brand-Mauer” or firewall of all parties against the AfD and the RN respectively. That firewall risks to begin cracking at the next elections in Sachsen-Anhalt though.
While many European conservative minds – inspired by South America’s shift to the right – are talking about the imminent rise of the Right or Far Right to power in the EU, our analysis does not support such optimism. The probability has risen, but it remains an uphill battle. Based on our independent analysis, it is more likely the Liberal-Left will stay in power. Western Europe is not South America – the latter is actually becoming a bit of an anti-thesis to Europe. For the right to win is an uphill battle, where many things have to converge. That is not Europe’s case. The USA has retreated from Europe and is now very active in South America where four conservative-led resources-rich nations of strategic relevance have aligned themselves with the US security strategy: Chile, Peru, Bolivia and Argentina.
Underestimating one’s rival?
In foreign relations of major powers it is not enough to be right or to be convinced that one is right, you need to know your rival’s rationale.
In 2001 near-bankrupt Russia started to rebuild its military by investing heavily in its strategic nuclear forces and the development of a tactical weapons arsenal. It neglected its conventional forces. Something that the tragic onslaught in Ukraine has laid bare. Because Moscow thinks the West has embraced a world order where Russia as a Christian-Orthodox nation state is highly unwelcome, it sees herself under threat by European powers. The expansion of the EU/NATO into Eastern Europe was perceived solely as military encirclement and as a confirmation of Moscow’s assessment.
Based on our independent assessment for the Kremlin the war over Ukraine is now an existential struggle – awakening powerful reflexes of the great struggles for survival against French and German invaders of past centuries. As a result of these layers of reinforcing views the hurdle for the use of nuclear weapons is probably lower than what EU leaders think. This produces higher scenario probabilities for Europe-Russia warfare scenarios.
This research report has been truncated here. If you wish to read the full report or subscribe, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com
Other sections of this report:
Could Moscow hit England and Germany?
Could Brussels be wrong?
Europe returns to its historical war cycle (1500 wars in 3000 years)
Investors fear US Bonds, but Europe is at more risk
Northern hemisphere on collision course
Little room for blaming it all on elites & government
Well done
Those of you that have made preparations over the past ten years will probably be glad they did. Whether you did secure residence at a safe haven in the Southern hemisphere or you shifted some of your assets to the South America/Far East or have several types of gold/silver positions outside the G20 .. among other measures, perilous times reward those that think ahead. Still, it is never too late to prepare and take some action to protect yourself and your family. As has been the case before every major war or major economic crisis, it was not wise to follow the crowd or consensus views.
For new readers
We have committed to objective analysis of geopolitical and economic developments – doing so with respect and a balanced approach. We seek to add value. Especially, because many commentators, journalists and analysts these days are passing judgement. Some are keen to shape public opinion rather than reporting or analysing facts. We appreciate activists – the world needs them, but we also need analysts that strive to separate their personal opinion from their professional work.
Furthermore we have committed to focus on that which consensus is underestimating and we release a report only when our analysis deviates from consensus significantly or we change our outlook significantly. A reminder: we are not a periodical. When we release a report depends solely on how our analysis differs from consensus and if we have changed our assessment. We are independent and we think independently. We don’t let AI write any of our reports.
Geopolitical Research Team – 26 August 2026 (truncated public release on 7 Sep 2026)
info@geopoliticalresearch.com
A personal note from our founder, Christian Takushi:
The great advantage of being an analysis-driven economist, rather than an activist for the left or the right, is that balanced analysis-driven research produces much more accurate predictions and we can pursue relentless analysis in search for the truth. Not only that, once we have a stable working hypothesis (or explanation) we keep revisiting it. I embrace the duty and freedom to change my assessment should new evidence arise. The primacy of National Security sets boundaries though, security concerns we should all respect. While this may no longer be today’s predominant reality, it used to be a standard in science and professional analysis. One that implied that one should separate personal views from empirical analysis.
Research made in Switzerland
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