After years of funding organized crime networks across Europe and helping sustain Russia’s war against Ukraine, Tehran is no longer veiling its threat to the continent. On July 12, Mohammad Javad Larijani, foreign policy advisor to Iran’s supreme leader, said that “Europeans and westerners can no longer move about comfortably,” also threatening that “five drones could strike [a European city].”
While Iranian weapons already threaten Europe through Russia’s war in Ukraine, Larijani’s remarks reflect Tehran’s intent to treat its expanding strategic presence in the region as leverage against the “E3”—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The Islamic Republic has played a key role in fueling Russia’s war in Ukraine by exporting drones and the technology to manufacture them domestically.
Since Iran and Russia agreed in 2023 to exchange drone-manufacturing capabilities, Moscow has significantly scaled up production in Tatarstan, where it now builds Shahed-136 kamikaze drones—renamed Geran-2— that it uses to bombard Ukrainian cities. Documents leaked from the Russian side and reported by The Washington Post reveal plans to build 6,000 drones by summer 2025 at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone. Similarly, the Washington-based C4ADS noted in May that the shift from Iranian drone imports to local manufacturing has been crucial in reinforcing Russia’s war effort.
Although Tehran and Moscow have sought to obscure the extent of their defense cooperation due to overlapping sanctions, Iran’s pursuit of overt arms exports in Europe as a means of preserving leverage against the West has grown increasingly visible. In 2023, the Islamic Republic showcased its latest drone systems at Serbia’s “Partner 23” exhibition, followed by a prominent display at Russia’s “ARMY 2024” expo. Most recently, in May 2025, Iran’s Ministry of Defense participated in MILEX-2025 in Belarus, where it exhibited the Shahed-129 strike UAV equipped with an electro-optical targeting turret and guided munitions, including Sadid-series bombs and a likely Almas anti-tank missile. Additional systems on display included smaller loitering and ISR drones, a standalone EO/IR sensor, and various UAV payloads and launch platforms.
The rise in Tehran’s confrontational rhetoric coincides with increasing signals that EU countries may reimpose multilateral sanctions through the snapback mechanism outlined in UN Security Council Resolution 2231, tied to Iran’s compliance under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. That window remains open until October 2025, leaving Washington and the E3 with only a narrow summer timeframe to forge a unified stance.
French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné stated at the UN Security Council in April that Paris “will not hesitate” to reinstate UN sanctions if diplomacy fails. Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports that Berlin was considering snapback provoked a strong condemnation from Iran’s Foreign Ministry.
Beyond the nuclear file, Tehran’s threat to Europe extends to its cultivation of organized crime networks used to pursue hostile operations across the continent. “The Iranian regime’s use of criminal networks as terrorist proxies in Europe poses a grave threat to our internal security,” the European Parliament warned in 2024.
The Tehran regime has provided financial and logistical support to groups such as the Hells Angels in Germany and the Rumba and Foxtrot gangs in Sweden. The United Kingdom has described Iran as one of the most serious state-based threats to its national security, while Finland’s intelligence agency issued a similar warning in May regarding Iran’s malign activities in the Nordic region.
Larijani’s remarks are part of a broader pattern of regime officials seeking to deter any European move toward snapback. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that activating the mechanism “would mark the end of Europe’s involvement in Iran’s nuclear dossier,” threatening a complete rupture in diplomatic ties. Kayhan Daily, which is affiliated with the Supreme Leader’s office, similarly stated that Iran may withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if snapback is triggered. The NPT prohibits nuclear weapons development in exchange for civilian nuclear rights and international oversight.
