Gold & Silver Crash – A stabilisation effort? (sv)
Date: 2 Feb 2026 (Public release on 4 Feb 2026 truncated)
Independent Global Geopolitical Macroeconomic Research
Dear reader
Those of you that follow our research since 2013 might recall one of our most important messages:
“Gold is the Enemy no 1 of an indebted state”.
A warning we are repeating every year and at almost every conference we’ve spoken at over the past 12 years.
We last shared some of our concerns regarding somewhat optimistic expectations of an imminent rise of gold to monetary supremacy in our report dated 30 Sep 2025. Barring some surprises or out of control events (like a First Strike on NATO, a hyper-inflationary spiral, a global depression following the implosion of our bubbles etc.) the path there is more likely to be shaped by the world powers.
Source: Newsletter from 30 Sep 2025, “Watch the USD and Israel”
Many gold/silver investors have been disappointed by our caution, because we have talked of coming geopolitical conflicts, wars and inflation for years – thus highlighting the importance to hold gold, silver and hard assets. But mentioning the caveat that holding too much gold & silver exposes the investor to state action. For years our target for gold remains at USD 5’000 – 10’000, but we acknowledge that t he indebted state will be obliged to suppress or upset pricing to protect financial stability and buy time. It might need to push back against gold/silver investors.
While world powers can hide their gold purchases, the lack of silver supplies affecting our technology and defence industries leaves little room for pure market reliance.
This differentiated view of gold & silver has not been popular, because in today’s world you have to be all in for something or someone. When tempted we replied “we have never aimed at growing the number of our readers, we only want to deliver objective and balanced analysis”.
Staying positive, yet cautious
We believe this latest painful correction was at least partially induced. But there is no room for complaining or finger pointing. The state has the duty to protect its currency and the stability of the financial system. If you take on Uncle Sam, you have to be ready for some pushback.
We have been positive on gold & silver, but have remained cautious about action from government and system relevant banks. We are not changing our stance.
We have not changed our target for gold (USD 5’000-10’000) – peak gold that is, because after the reset we expect gold’s role to be watered down once trust in the system has been restored. None of the big powers (except for one) are planning to stick to gold long term. Interestingly, we usually don’t share our silver price target range. For one reason – Silver is a very critical element for our defence industry and while the risk of government confiscation is low, the risk of effective price controls is high. Look at this past week: Paper silver traded below USD 100, while people where willing to pay USD 120 for physical silver in Asia. This risk of course doesn’t reduce silver’s powerful inherent value as the most practical money should systems break down.
The problem is many people focus on fundamentals to gauge price gains and underestimate how geopolitical, political and macroeconomic forces overlap. The USA cannot allow its defence industry to run out of silver. That could lead US foes to take military action. National Security overrides all other interests. China was cooperative last week and kind of stepped aside, will it do so for very long? We doubt it.
Gold and silver corrections
Those of us who have been in the investment industry more than 30 years remember well the setbacks that precious metals suffered in the 1980s and the 2010’s. It has been a long and painful period that few can really grasp. But that long period of patience explains how the budding joy of gold & silver bugs (as long time investors in precious metals are often called) three years ago could lead many into sheer joy in 2025 and some into near-euphoria in January 2026.
Sadly, many experts armed with excellent fundamentals pushed gold & silver aggressively to their followers. What they might have overlooked was the raw reality of how the monetary system and the political process interact. But while many are saying “never again”, we’d say, the time to increase those moderate positions may be near.
What has happened?
Enter SSO Based on our independent analysis as of 2 February 2026 our best inference is that investors ran into an SSO,
This research report has been truncated here. If you wish to read the full report or subscribe, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com
The rise of gold & silver, just not too fast
A US led operation
What we can take
For new readers
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Geopolitical Research Team – 2 Feb 2026 (Public release on 4 Feb 2026 truncated)
info@geopoliticalresearch.com
Research made in Switzerland
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