CLASSICAL GEOPOLITICS AND SOUTH AMERICA – AN INTRODUCTION
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In classical geopolitics, not all countries are created equal. Some are more powerful than others, but the behavior of all is governed by their attempts to acquire and maintain power. States with large populations and territories are the hegemons. Weak states tend to lay around the center. Geography determines whether a country is part of the periphery or the center because these are the things that determine a country’s power potential. South America has been disadvanteged by its less central position in classical geopolitical terms. In the 21st century the continent has growing and great potential.
During the colonial era South America integrated into the geoeconomical system of the time. The rulers were allowed to trade with the European colonial power that controlled their territories. Many reforms were also introduced during the last century of colonial rule.
Borders were created that are still existing. The trading was allowed to extend inside the European empires. The result was growing opposition in the colonies which led to the formation of independence movements that freed the countries of the continent beginning in around 1810.
American influence grew and in 1898, it emerged as the Western Hemisphere’s hegemon. Of great importance was the development of navy protection against foreign powers. Furthermore America could now enforce its foreign policy, including the Monroe Doctrine.
Decades that have been named after President Theodore Roosevelt followed. The United States now kept European powers out of the Western Hemisphere.
Panama’s independence was supported, Cuban independence was protected, military expeditions were launched in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. The Western Hemisphere was in effect an American sphere of influence. This later after the Second World War created a peaceful democratic development after years of Cold War turmoil with attempts of communist takeovers and so called national liberation movements. Presently there is only one country with communist rule in South America, Venezuela.
For hundred of years Europe was the center of influence in the Americas. This resulted in South America being hindered in its development by having to mainly trade only with Spain and Portugal.
South America’s domination by colonial powers ended during the first part of the 1800s. During the independence era, the continent was far too consumed with problems at home and could not join the international economic system from a position a strength.
American economic decoupling from China could be South America’s opportunity. It is is of strategic importance that China is prevented from emerging as a dominant technology superpower. A decoupling started already in 2019 with a stop of China selling products in America that are a threat to national security. It has become necessary to slow down China’s rise. Huawei might be blacklisted from buying components in the United States.
A part of decoupling is to move manufacturing from China. In July 2019 it was reported that more than 50 multinationals from Apple to Nintendo are leaving PRC to avoid tariffs. Since 2018 25 percent tariffs have been placed on US dollar 200 billion of Chinese goods. There were already in 2019 signs that Chinese growth is slowing down to 6,2 percent. Thousands of companies are now leaving.
China expert Steven Mosher in April 2020 said that Japan’s government had informed that it will start paying its companies to relocate out of China. Other countries, including America, will doubtless follow suit. Then there are Trump’s tariffs, which will kick back in if China likely fails to keep its promise to buy $250 billion in American-made products before the end of 2021.
In the next year (2021), the Chinese economy will suffer a death by a thousand cuts: a resumption of the Trump tariffs, supply chains relocating to other countries, factories moving to freer climes, consumers around the world rejecting China’s wares.
No single cut will be fatal. But taken together, they will bleed China’s economy dry. They may also, it is to be hoped, shake the corrupt and incompetent Chinese Communist Party to its very foundations.
For the sake of economic well-being and national security, America has long needed a “hard decoupling” from China…Factor in the trillions of dollars of damage to the global economy because of the “Made in China” pandemic, and the cost is simply too much to bear.
The conclusion is that if this decoupling development continues it could open opportunities for South American countries. Production could be moved to the Western Hemisphere and especially South America. American investments would then contribute to growing wealth in a number of South American countries.
