Over the last 24 hours we have seen what people call an escalation in the war in the Middle East. To us the war has followed a somewhat predictable path until yesterday. As most other post-war conflicts, this war was following a certain script: this is allowed, this is not allowed. That is not total war.
Despite yesterday’s escalation we still deem this a managed war. Interestingly, strategic installations were being spared -and nobody would notice it or comment about it. Thus for two weeks only secondary installations were been targeted. That is a managed conflict. Only last night something shifted – it seemed both sides were willing to destroy what would really inflict serious pain on the enemy. But within a few hours Washington signalled “it wasn’t us”, adding “IF .., then”. That was a military de-escalation. When I heard that, I went to bed.
Still, even managed wars come at a human toll and economic price. This one has still the potential to escalate into a wider war (big and long enough that could devastate a weakened Europe) and even a total war. But we are not there yet.
Misreading Trump
In recent weeks European and Asian leaders & commentators have been criticising and letting it out on President Trump. Some “Schadenfreude” was palpable. Three things stood out in our European narrative:
a) President Trump had no idea what he was getting into in Iran
b) America is about to suffer dearly for miscalculating
c) Europe is seizing the moment to distance itself from America
In one word: “America, this is your war and your problem”.
Seeing this last week I was concerned and felt we might soon have a day of reckoning in Asia and Europe. Why? Once more we are misreading President Trump and falling for it – He is again enjoying it as he feeds us contradictions, ambiguity and chaos. Our ”It is just chaos and he doesn’t know what he is doing” does not speak well of our analytical capabilities. But it shows how predictable we are.
A super power like the USA doesn’t go to war just, because a friend gave the President a call. People who say that do not really grasp how complex and vast the US security and military apparatus is. Furthermore no US president risks losing Congress to make a favour to an ally. America acts in self interest. Every nation does.
So many politicians in Europe say to be in “shock” when they hear the slogan “America First”. If you think European powers are kind and selfless, just dial back in your memory to the Covid year 2020. We would not share medicine nor doctors with other European neighbours. Solidarity was dead. It only returned as we could provide for our own people first.
Washington has two priorities: The Western hemisphere & China
When we put what is going on in the context of Washington’s strategic priorities, what we are seeing since January 1st kind of makes sense.
a) Washington is seriously hurting China
b) Washington is crashing the regimes in Venezuela and Cuba to reassert its dominance over Latin America. And key nations in Latin America are responding positively, shifting to the right and rallying behind Washington. Something we have not seen in Latam in 60 years and it is big. Why? Latin America has what the world needs in the coming decades: copper, silver, food … and most of all safe maritime routes.
The problem is Europe – it is the biggest collateral damage. And in Washnington’s view, a wayward ally that genuinly despises America, doesn’t deserve better. The day that Europe faces war with Russia, European nations will call on the USA. Washington will say, “you remember? Your war, your problem”. By denying support to the USA and especially by enjoying that America is struggling to finish the job quickly, Europe has established the precedent. Europe is likely to have to face Russia alone one day. Not very soon though, a foe that has promised revenge waits for a timing of his own choosing.
The other collateral damage would be financial markets. And don’t forget that to cover steep losses, investors tend to take profits. The biggest profits last year were in precious metals. Thus, everything positively correlated for weeks.
Europe has terribly miscalculated over the past 25 years, but it is adding terrible new miscalculations on a monthly basis this year. It is either very naive, unable to put its own interests first or unfit to set the right priorities.
This research report has been truncated here. If you wish to read the full report or subscribe, you can write to info@geopoliticalresearch.com
Costly for Japan & South Korea, devastating for Europe
More strategic than domestic
The last chance to contain Iran in a lifetime?
The biggest possible surprise?
Europe thinks the unthinkable
The advantage of being an independent analyst
The great advantage of being an analyst – rather than an activist for the left or right – is that I can pursue an indiscriminate analysis in search for the truth no matter the outcome or conclusion. Not only that, once I have a stable working hypothesis (or explanation) I can revisit it if new evidence arises. That is the freedom to change my assessment and my opinion. It is not today’s reality, but that used to be at the heart of science and professional analysis.
